oa Civil Engineering = Siviele Ingenieurswese - Steady state probabilities for storage in Midmar Dam, Natal



The ability of Midmar Darn near Pietermaritzburg, Natal, to meet present and future demands for water is investigated using established probability theory. A Markov chain storage model as proposed by Moran and extended by Lloyd is applied to compute for various draft rates the probabilities of the storage exceeding or falling below certain levels. To this end, a straightforward algorithm is developed for estimating the storage transition probabilities needed in this model.


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