oa Civil Engineering = Siviele Ingenieurswese - Risk-based safety evaluation of dams



The paper discusses the initial stages and development of a method of riskbased dam safety evaluation for the Department of Water Affairs. Theanalysis methodology used by the Department is discussed briefly. The methods of calculation used to determine probabilities of failure and the way in which dambreak analyses are done are summarized. Guidelines that should be used by the decision-maker as regards factors such as the acceptability or otherwise of levels of threat and risk of dams are examined next, followed by a few conclusions and recommendations.


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