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oa Civil Engineer in South Africa - Stochastic modelling and risk analysis applied to urban reservoir design : technical paper

 

Abstract

The very high costs associated with meeting generally accepted storage norms for urban reservoirs, such as 48 hours of average daily demand, together with rare or lack of failure of reservoirs which do not meet these standards, prompted some investigations.


A pilot study was undertaken to investigate the suitability of stochastic modelling and reservoir routing as a solution to the establishment of size - risk - cost planning aids for the design of urban reservoirs.
Based on existing consumption records a stochastic model was developed to mimic consumption from two reservoirs. From the results of the simulations, characteristics of the behaviour of the reservoirs were discovered and now become meaningful planning aids for future development.

Die hoë koste daaraan verbonde om aan die algemeen aanvaarde kapasiteitsnorme vir stedelike reservoirs te voldoen, soos byvoorbeeld 48 uur van gemiddelde daaglikse verbruik, tesame met die seldsame of gebrek aan leegloop van reservoirs wat selfs nie aan die standaarde voldoen nie, het sekere ondersoeke geïnspireer.


'n Loodstudie is onderneem om die toepasbaarheid van stogastiese modellering en reservoir roetering as 'n metode vir die daarstelling van kapasiteit - risiko - koste beplanningshulpmiddels vir die ontwerp van stedelike reservoirs te ondersoek.
Op grond van geskiedkundige verbruiksrekords is 'n stogastiese model ontwikkel om die daaglikse verbruik uit twee reservoirs na te boots. Gegrond op die simuleringsresultate, is karakteristieke werkverrigtingspatrone van die reservoirs vasgestel wat nou as sinvolle beplanningshulpmiddels ten opsigte van toekomstige ontwikkelings aangewend kan word.

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/content/civeng1/27/8/EJC25002
1985-08-01
2016-12-05
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