oa Civil Engineer in South Africa - Revised risk analysis for extreme storms and floods in Natal / KwaZulu



Extreme storms and the resulting floods over Natal appear to come from two distinct weather-generating mechanisms. The paper describes the estimation of the mixed distribution functions for the two components and attempts to regionalize large storms for design purposes. Conventional extreme value analysis tends to underestimate the arrival rate and therefore the magnitude of the rarer events. In addition, it is found that for large coastal storms, conventional area reduction factors tend to underestimate large-catchment, flood-producing rainfall, especially for long durations.


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