1887

oa Civil Engineer in South Africa - Risk analysis of bridge structures over rivers in South Africa

 

Abstract

The damaging effects of recent floods on bridges in South Africa has resulted in a reassessment of design procedures. The statistical and deterministic methods of flood peak determination appear to be inadequate. Recent research by hydrologists indicates that an empirical approach may be more reliable. Furthermore, sensitivity studies of the resistance of bridge structures to peak floods with very low probabilities of exceedance may be preferable to applying a load factor to the effects of maximum floods with a return period equal to the useful life of the bridge. Reliability theory and risk analysis, although difficult to apply in practice, can give useful insights into methods of optimizing the design and reducing the sensivity of bridge structures to the effects of the exceedance of design floods.

Die skade wat deur onlangse oorstromings aan brûe in Suid-Afrika veroorsaak is, het gelei tot 'n hewaardering van ontwerp-prosedures. Die bepaling van spitsvloede deur middel van statistiese of deterministiese berekeninge blyk onvoldoende te wees. Onlangse hidrologiese navorsing dui daarop dat 'n impiriese benadering meer betroubaar mag wees. Dit mag verkieslik wees om sensitiwiteitstudies van die weerstand van brugstrukture teen spitsoortromings met 'n klein waarskynlikheid van oorskryding te doen, in plaas van die toepassing van lasfaktore op die effekte van 'n maksimum vloed met 'n keerperiode gelyk aan die bruikbare leeftyd van die brug. Betroubaarheidsleer en risiko-ontleding, alhoewel moeilik om in die praktyk toe te pas, kan insigte gee tot hoe om die ontwerp te optimiseer en die sensitiwiteit van die brug vir die gevolge van die oorskryding van ontwerpvioede te verminder.

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/content/civeng1/30/12/EJC25058
1988-12-01
2016-12-06
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