n Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering = Joernaal van die Suid-Afrikaanse Instituut van Siviele Ingenieurswese - The impact of location choice factors on retail suburbanisation based on a stated preference model developed for Cape Town : technical paper




Suburbanisation, which involves the general shift in business activities from the central business district (CBD) of cities to the suburban areas, has lead to multi-dimensional and complex problems. Urban planners have proposed various urban densification strategies, such as corridor development, to address the structural problems of South African cities. To define the most effective policies to attract development to priority development corridors and nodes, metropolitan authorities need to understand the locational choice behaviour of the various urban activities and need to quantify the demand elasticities of the main factors driving locational choice. <br>The paper summarises research conducted for the purposes of the author's PhD thesis at the University of Stellenbosch. The main purpose of the research was to determine the locational choice behaviour of retail businesses in strategic spatial terms, in order to assist metropolitan authorities and planners to formulate effective urban densification strategies and to manage suburbanisation. The paper discusses the market research conducted among a sample of retail managers in Cape Town and the quantification of the relative importance and elasticities of locational choice factors derived from stated preference (SP) models that were calibrated on the survey data. The testing of decentralisation strategies with a retail location spreadsheet model based on the SP model results are discussed as well as policies to promote urban densification and to manage suburbanisation


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