n Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering = Joernaal van die Suid-Afrikaanse Instituut van Siviele Ingenieurswese - Potential application of end-use demand modelling in South Africa : technical paper




End-use water demand modelling is used to generate water demand projections by modelling various end uses, for example showers, toilets and washing machines. End-use models can be used to estimate water demand changes due to various scenarios, such as price increases, housing densification and conservation programmes. This study reports on the potential application of end-use modelling in South Africa, based on a pilot study that was done for Rand Water. The model includes elasticities of water demand with respect to variations in water price, household income, stand size and pressure. The study highlights many of the difficulties and limitations, as well as the potential applications of end-use modelling as a water demand predictor. A special effort is made to explain the meaning and application of elasticity in end-use modelling. Various data sources were used to determine elasticities for the variables used, and to identify minimum and maximum elasticity values. The implications of the elasticities are illustrated using a sensitivity analysis and case study.


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