n Acta Criminologica: Southern African Journal of Criminology - Seasonality of reported child rape in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Volume 21, Issue 3
  • ISSN : 1012-8093



Seasonal variations in reported child rape were examined in a sample of 5 308 survivors presenting for medico-legal assessment in the North Durban Policing area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa during the period January 2001 to December 2006. Seasonality was assessed using the average percentage method, with the analysis providing clear evidence of seasonality in the incidence of reported child rape. Incidence figures for child rape peaked during the summer months and reached their lowest levels during the winter months. Subsequent analyses indicated that these trends were more adequately accounted for by the Temperature / Aggression Hypothesis than by the predictions of Routine Activity Theory. The findings were discussed in terms of its implications for theory, for future research, and for practice.

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