n Acta Criminologica: Southern African Journal of Criminology - Towards a risk assessment model for the road traffic environment
|Article Title||Towards a risk assessment model for the road traffic environment|
|© Publisher:||Criminological and Victimological Society of Southern Africa (CRIMSA)|
|Journal||Acta Criminologica: Southern African Journal of Criminology|
|Author||I.D. De Vries, S.R. Kockott and H.B. Pretorius|
|Publication Date||Jan 2010|
|Pages||14 - 34|
After World War II, which lasted from 1939 to 1945, the economies of many countries worldwide experienced a boom period. Many people were able to buy private motor vehicles. A consequence of this, however, was that the number of road traffic accidents in these countries has also increased dramatically. From reports over decades it became clear that traffic safety programs that were implemented did not have the desired effect. To evaluate success, countries normally used accident rates or indices based on mathematical formulas. Rates and indices were and are still used to compare accident situations among countries - normally on an annual basis. It seems that motorised countries try to determine a "winner" by recording the lowest accident rates and indices in a specific year. The approaches followed are uncoordinated. In addition to trend analysis, the municipal police managers or road transport and traffic safety fraternity authorities in the various countries could also focus on risk analysis. Risk analysis is used in the industry with its many role players and security and safety can be promoted through this approach in a more scientific manner. Although risks are normally formulated in terms of probability theory, a Risk Score Value model could be of further benefit to road traffic managers. The Risk Score Value could be used to assist authorities to conduct cost effectiveness studies and to prioritize and optimise countermeasures in a holistic integrated manner with a view to reduce road operation risks to an acceptable level.
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