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oa Discourse - Recession : an economic perspective

 

Abstract

The 2007 / 08 financial crisis caused the biggest economic slump since the Great Depression. Due to the interconnectedness of financial markets and innovative financial instruments a crisis in the US subprime housing market was rapidly transmitted globally and caused recessions in advanced and developing economies. The fallibility of financial markets and governments was exposed and Keynesian-type rescue plans and a thorough rethink on and redesign of financial regulation followed. South Africa was also hard hit, especially due to the fall in export demands. Because of conservative regulation and financial policies, no financial institutions were liquidated, however. Substantial gains from the previous economic upswing, the longest business cycle on record, are still intact. There are early signs of a recovery, which is bound to be slow. In future financial markets are bound to be better regulated and governments more closely watched. This paper explains what a recession is, the causes of the latest recession and how serious the recession is, and concludes with some observations about what has been learnt.

Die finansiële krisis van 2007 / 08 het die grootste ekonomiese insinking sedert die Groot Depressie veroorsaak. Aangesien die finansiële markte en innoverende finansiële instrumente onderling verbind is, het die krisis in die Amerikaanse subprima behuisingsmark vinniger wêreldwyd versprei en 'n resessie in ontwikkelde (nywerheids-) lande en ontwikkelende ekonomieë veroorsaak. Die feilbaarheid van finansiële markte en regerings het aan die lig gekom en is gevolg deur Keynesiaanse-tipe reddingsplanne en deeglike herbesinning oor en herontwerp van finansiële regulering. Suid-Afrika is ook swaar getref, veral omdat die vraag na uitvoere gedaal het. Vanweë konserwatiewe regulering en finansiële beleid, is geen finansiële instelling egter gelikwideer nie. Heelwat van die gewin van die vorige ekonomiese opswaai, die langste sakesiklus wat aangeteken is, het behoue gebly. Daar is reeds tekens van herstel, wat waarskynlik langsaam sal geskied. Finansiële markte sal in die toekoms waarskynlik beter gereguleer word en regerings sal fyner dopgehou word. Hierdie artikel verduidelik wat 'n resessie is, wat die jongste resessie veroorsaak het en hoe ernstig dit is, en sluit af met bepaalde waarnemings oor dit wat geleer is.

Khuduego ya ditšhelete ya 2007 / 08 e hlotše phuhlamo ye kgolo ya ekonomi e sa le go tloga ka Tšhaparego ye Kgolo. Ka lebaka la go tsenelana ga mebaraka ya ditšhelete le ditlabakelo tša maithomelo a ditšhelete, khuduego ka go mmaraka wa dintlo wa US e ile ya fetišetšwa lefaseng ka bophara ka lebelo gomme ya hlola go theoga ga ekonomi ka go diekonomi tšeo di tšwetšego pele le tšeo di hlabologilego. Go wa ga mebaraka ya ditšhelete le mmušo go be go bonagatšwa gomme mohuta wa Keynesia wa peakanyo ya tlhakodišo le go naganalefsa go go phethegilego le go akanyalefsa ka ga melawana ya ditšhelete go ile gwa latelwa. Afrika Borwa e ile ya kwešwa bohloko le yona, kudu ka lebaka la go wa ga dinyakwa tša diromelwantle. Fela, ka lebaka la molawana wa go boloka le dipholisi tša ditšhelete, ga go diinstitšhušene tša ditšhelete tšeo di fedišitšwego. Dipoelo tše di tiilego tša go rotoga ga ekonomi ga go feta, tlhatlamano ye telele ya kgwebo ye e kilego ya bonwa, di sa le ka maemo a tšona. Go na le ditaetši tša pele tša kaonafalo, tšeo di nanyago. Ka go mebaraka ya ditšhelete ya ka moso di laetša go ba kaone ge di laolwa gomme mebušo e di beile leihlo le ntšhotšho. Sengwalwa se se hlaloša seo go theoga ga ekonomi go lego sona, seo se hlotšego go theoga ga ekonomi ga moragorago le ka fao go theoga ga ekonomi go ka bago kotsi ka gona, gomme se ruma ka dikelohloko ka ga seo go ithutilwego sona.

IKrayisisi yezezimali yonyaka wezezimali 2007 / 2008 yabangela ukuncipha juqu komnotho okungakaze kubonwe kusukela kwiGreat Depression. Ngezizathu zokuxhumana ngaphakathi kwezimakethe zezimali namathuluzi okuqanjwa busha kwezezimali emakethe yezindlu eUS ye yasulela ngokukhulu ukushesha emhlabeni jikelele kwabangela ukuhlehla emnothweni yamazwe okuqala nathuthukayo. Ukungawa kwezimakethe zezimali nohulumeni kwavelela obala kanti namapulani okutakula ohlobo olufana nalolo luka nokucabangisisa okujulile nokudweba kabusha kwemithetho yezezimali kwalandela. Iningizimi Afrika nayo yashayeka kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuwa kwemikhiqizo ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Kodwa ngenxa yemithetho eziqoqile nezinqubomgomo zezimali, akubanga nazikhungo zezimali ezawa. Izinzuzo eziphathekayo ezisukela ekusimameni komnotho kwangaphambilini, iyingilizi yezamabhzinisi ende kunawo wonke ake arekhodwa, zisahlangene. Sekunezimpawu zokusinda, ekulindeleke ukuthi kukuhambe konyawo lonwabo. Esikhathini esizayo izimakethe zezimali zilindeleke ukuthi zilawulwe kangcono kanti futhi nohulumeni babhekwe ngolwesikhova. Leli phephi lihlola ukuthi ukuhlehla komnotho kuyini, izimbangela zokuhlehla komnotho kwakamuva nokuthi kube kubi kangakanani, liphothule ngokubuka okumbalwa ngalokho okufundiwe.

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/content/discourse/37/2/EJC31200
2009-12-01
2016-12-03
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