n South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences - AIDS and economic growth in South Africa
|Article Title||AIDS and economic growth in South Africa|
|© Publisher:||University of Pretoria|
|Journal||South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences|
|Author||Rodney B.W. Smith|
|Publication Date||Dec 2004|
|Pages||683 - 692|
|Keyword(s)||47, I12 and O15|
ISI Social Science
Morbidity and mortality effects are introduced into a three sector, Ramsey-type model of economic growth. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV / AIDS on economic growth. Simulation results suggest a 10 per cent decrease in the size of the effective labour force would lead to a 10 per cent decrease in long-run (steady state) GDP levels. Similarly, a 10 per cent decrease in the number of labourers would lead to an 11 per cent drop in long-run GDP.
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