n South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences - AIDS and economic growth in South Africa

Volume 7, Issue 4
  • ISSN : 1015-8812
  • E-ISSN: 2222-3436



Morbidity and mortality effects are introduced into a three sector, Ramsey-type model of economic growth. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV / AIDS on economic growth. Simulation results suggest a 10 per cent decrease in the size of the effective labour force would lead to a 10 per cent decrease in long-run (steady state) GDP levels. Similarly, a 10 per cent decrease in the number of labourers would lead to an 11 per cent drop in long-run GDP.

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