According to the weak-form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), investors should not be able to outperform the market consistently by looking at charts of past share prices or by devising trading rules based on historic share returns. This paper investigates the extent to which the equity prices of firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) are consistent with this hypothesis. In particular, the paper investigates the weak-form efficiency of the NSE using weekly returns for the 69 most actively traded shares over the period 1995-2005. The paper tests the weak-form of the EMH using a battery of tests including tests of autocorrelations and technical trading strategies. Overall, the analysis indicates that the Nigerian market may be weak-form efficient for ordinary investors who operate in a costly trading environment.
This study assesses the determinants of banking system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and asks what, besides the degree of efficiency, explains the low level of financial development in the region. It uses stochastic frontier analysis to measure efficiency and a generalized method of moments system to explain financial development. SSA banks are found to be generally cost-efficient, with some differences across sub-regions. Among the determinants of efficiency, Return On Equity and non performing loans seem to have a negative impact, highlighting the problem of moral hazard faced by banks and the weakness of the judicial and legal environment in enforcing credit contracts. Financial development in SSA could be improved by better macroeconomic stabilization policy and a more competitive banking sector.
This paper examines the level of integration of the South African stock index in the global equity market. The method used is the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) proposed by Forni et al. (2005a). The DFM uses a large panel of stock returns to extract the world component, common to all series. We use a Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) to assess the degree of integration for stock market. The results show a strong co-movement between South African equity market and emerging market economies. On the other hand, there is a moderate link with advanced economies.
This paper assesses the degree of financial integration between South Africa and the United States of America to infer South African's financial integration into the world economy. The analysis is based on the covered interest parity whereby the mean reverting property of the covered interest differential, and the long-run equilibrium of the variables that constitute the covered interest parity, are examined. The paper finds that covered interest difference is mean reverting and its absolute mean decreases progressively during different periods of the analysis. This finding supports an increasing degree of South Africa's financial integration into the world economy from 1993 to 2008.
This study examines the factors that explain the return generating process of stocks listed on the JSE. Monthly returns of stocks listed on the JSE from 1997-2007 are analysed using mostly multivariate factor analysis techniques. The paper further explores the sensitivities of the factors identified in bull and bear markets. Evidence supporting the use of multi-factor models in explaining the return generating process on the JSE is found. The results provide additional support for Van Rensburg (1997)'s two-factor model for the JSE.