n South African Journal of Higher Education - An exploration of pupil enrolment projections within KwaZulu- Natal : implications for teacher demand analysis




As South Africa recovers from the effect of teacher oversupply, issues of teacher demand are explored and stock is taken of the low teacher graduate output of higher education institutions. Up until now, however, many projections on teacher demand have been understood within the context of HIV / AIDS and teacher attrition. This article makes a case for a more fine-grained analysis of teacher demand, and demonstrates the complexity that underlies such a fine-grained analysis. Learner enrolment taken from the Education Management Information System (EMIS) database is quantitatively subjected to mortality and birth rates. The article urges for further research on teacher supply and demand with a qualitative strand underpinning it.


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