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n South African Journal of Industrial Engineering - Performance evaluation and economic analysis of a steam thermal power plant

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Abstract

Performance evaluation and economic analysis is carried out to predict the steady state operational availability and net present value index for a thermal power plant. Mathematical formulation of the plant's reliability is carried out using probability theory following the Chapman-Kolmogorov Birth-Death process. The system of differential equations obtained is solved using the Laplace transformation technique. The behaviour analysis of performance modules reveals that availability decreases with increasing failure rates, while operational availability improves with an initial increase in repair rates for different sub-systems. From the economic evaluation module, the plant availability and power generation capacity are found to be sensitive, while increasing the redundancies of feed pump or condensate extraction pump sub-systems has less influence on the profitability index. A high-capacity plant reflects better trends. Model predictions indicate a critical condition for repair rates ; beyond these rates the plant availability, net present value, and annual revenue earned are found to be insensitive.

Prestasiebepaling en teenswoordige ontleding word uitgevoer om gestadigde operasionele beskikbaarheid en 'n netto teenswoordige indekswaarde vir 'n fossielbrandstofkragstasie te bepaal. 'n Wiskundige model vir aanlegbetroubaarheid word probabilisties geskep met gebruik van die Chapman-Kolmogorov metode. Die model se differensiaalvergelykings word gemanipuleer met gebruik van Laplace-transformasie. Die resulterende sisteemprestasie toon dat beskikbaarheid afneem met toenemende mislukkingstempo's en vice versa. Die ekonomiese ontleding van die model toon sensitiwiteit by lewering van drywing en beskikbaarheid, en dat oortolligheid van sekere hulpsubsisteme nie betekenisvol tot winsgewendheid bydra nie. Die model benadeel die belangrikheid van hersteltempo's.

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/content/indeng/20/1/EJC46195
2009-05-01
2016-12-08
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