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n South African Journal of Industrial Engineering - A stochastic analysis approach on the cost-time profile for selecting the best future state map : case study

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Abstract

In the literature on value stream mapping (VSM), the only basis for choosing the best future state map (FSM) among the proposed alternatives is the time factor. As a result, the FSM is selected as the best option because it has the least amount of total production lead time (TPLT). In this paper, the cost factor is considered in the FSM selection process, in addition to the time factor. Thus, for each of the proposed FSMs, the cost-time profile (CTP) is used. Two factors that are of particular importance for the customer and the manufacturer - the TPLT and the direct cost of the product - are reviewed and analysed by calculating the sub-area of the CTP curve, called the cost-time investment (CTI). In addition, variability in the generated data has been studied in each of the CTPs in order to choose the best FSM more precisely and accurately. Based on a proposed step-by-step stochastic analysis method, and also by using non-parametric Kernel estimation methods for estimating the probability density function of CTIs, the process of choosing the best FSM has been carried out, based not only on the minimum expected CTI, but also on the minimum expected variability amount in CTIs among proposed alternatives. By implementing this method during the process of choosing the best FSM, the manufacturing organisations will consider both the cost factor and the variability in the generated data, in addition to the time factor. Accordingly, the decision-making process proceeds more easily and logically than do traditional methods. Finally, to describe the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method in this paper, it is applied to a case study on an industrial parts manufacturing company in Iran.

Volgens die literatuur oor waarde stroom kartering (VSM) is die tydfaktor die enigste rede vir die kies van die beste eienskap toestand kaart (FSM) bo die ander voorgestelde alternatiewe. FSM word gekies as die beste opsie omdat dit die kortste totale produksie lei tyd het. Hierdie artikel oorweeg die kostefaktor in die FSM seleksie proses saam met die tydfaktor. Dus, vir elkeen van die voorgestelde FSM kaarte word die koste-tyd profiel gebruik. Twee faktore wat van uiterste belang vir die kliënt en vervaardiger is, naamlik die totale produk lei tyd en die direkte koste van die produk, is hersien en analiseer deur die area onder die koste-tyd profiel kurwe te bereken. Hierdie area staan bekend as die koste-tyd belegging. Verder word veranderlikheid in die gegenereerde data bestudeer in elk van die koste-tyd profiele, sodat die beste FSM meer presies gekies kan word. Die beste FSM is bepaal deur 'n voorgestelde treë-vir-treë stogastiese analise metode en 'n nie-parametriese Kernel skatting van die waarskynlikheiddigtheidfunksie van die koste-tyd belegging. Die seleksie van die beste FSM is dus nie net op die minimum verwagte koste-tyd belegging gekies nie, maar ook op die minimum verwagte veranderlikheid van die koste-tyd belegging. Deur hierdie metode van FSM seleksie sal fabrikante beide die koste faktor en die veranderlikheid in die gegenereerde data, en die tyd faktor in ag neem. Dienooreenkomstig sal die besluitnemingsproses gladder en meer logies verloop as tradisionele metodes. Laastens, om die doeltreffendeheid en toepasbaarheid van dié voorgestelde metode te ondersoek, word dit toegepas op 'n gevallestudie van 'n industriële onderdele fabrikant in Iran.

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/content/indeng/26/1/EJC172196
2015-05-01
2016-12-08
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