n Institute for Security Studies Monographs - Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa : prospects for 26 'more fragile' countries

Volume 2013, Issue 188
  • ISSN :



This monograph provides a long-term forecast for 26 'more fragile' countries in Africa using the International Futures forecasting system. It is based on an initial technical paper prepared for the African Development Bank (AfDB) High-level Panel on Fragile States. The forecast is based on a model of dynamic interaction among long-term structural drivers of fragility, which is presented in terms of a mutually reinforcing system or syndrome of fragility. The forecast is presented as a base-case scenario and in terms of an optimistic and pessimistic manipulation of the base-case trends.

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