1887

n Institute for Security Studies Papers - Africa's current and future stability

USD

 

Abstract

This paper first presents a summary of recent conflict trends in Africa, largely drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Then, to provide a picture of the potential future impact of changes in Africa's development and security prospects up to 2063 (a timeline that ties in with the African Union's Agenda 2063 initiative), the paper models the implications of three alternative futures for Africa. These are a 'Base Case' scenario (the current trajectory), an 'African Renaissance' scenario (a best-case scenario) and a 'Politics of the Belly' scenario (in which the trends analysed take a negative course).

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/ispaper/2014/274/EJC162393
2014-11-01
2016-12-02
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error