n Journal of Public Administration - A glimpse into the future of the Congress of the People
|Article Title||A glimpse into the future of the Congress of the People|
|© Publisher:||South African Association of Public Administration and Management (SAAPAM)|
|Journal||Journal of Public Administration|
|Affiliations||1 Tshwane University of Technology and 2 University of Witwatersrand|
|Publication Date||Mar 2011|
|Pages||1182 - 1198|
|Issue||Special issue 1|
This article seeks to examine the question, what does the future hold for the Congress of the People (COPE)? It is a glimpse into the future of COPE through the lens of the 2011 local government elections. The discourse in this article is located within the methodological paradigm of futurology and adopts a longitudinal approach. For contextual reasons, the article starts with a reflection on the evolution of COPE and the behavioural patterns that characterise its strategic political orientation and organisational dynamics. This is followed by the analysis of the 2009 general elections to provide a context from which an electoral trend could be determined and used to predict the future of COPE through the lens of the 2011 local government elections. Compared to the 2009 general elections, COPE performed badly in the 2011 local government elections. The reasons for this are examined to provide a comparative context from which its future is predicted. The contention of the article is that COPE's future is bleak. It is most likely to disappear from South Africa's political radar. Scenarios of its extinction are sketched, which converge on the point that the shortfalls of COPE are endemic. Its problems are both endogenous and exogenous so that, as the results of the 2011 local government show, a future beyond 2014 seems far-fetched.
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