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oa Litnet Akademies : 'n Joernaal vir die Geesteswetenskappe, Natuurwetenskappe, Regte en Godsdienswetenskappe - 'n Eeu van orde in sakeondernemings in dorpe van die Oos-Kaapse Karoo : geesteswetenskappe

 

Abstract

Vroeëre waarnemings van 'n reglynige verband (direkte eweredigheid) tussen bevolkingsyfers en die getal sakeondernemings in Suid-Afrikaanse dorpe bied 'n nuwe benadering om sakedinamika in dorpe te ondersoek. Hier word die verband tussen die getal inwoners uit verskillende bevolkingsgroepe (onafhanklike veranderlikes) en getal sakeondernemings (afhanklike veranderlikes) van 12 Oos-Kaapse Karoodorpe oor bykans 'n eeu met behulp van korrelasie- en regressie-ontledings ondersoek. Spesifieke nulhipoteses is gestel en getoets. Statisties-betekenisvolle regressievergelykings is geregistreer tussen bevolkingsyfers (die totaal, asook per rasgroep) en die getal sakeondernemings in dorpe. Oor bykans 'n eeu kan reglynige verbande tussen die getal inwoners en die getal sakeondernemings in dorpe van die Oos-Kaapse Karoo aangetoon word. Die regressievergelykings was nie staties nie, maar het met verloop van tyd in ordelike patrone verskuif - aanduidend van 'n langtermyn ekonomiese stelsel waarin geld, bevolking en bevolkingsgroepe 'n sentrale rol vervul. Die rol van dorps- en landelike bevolkingsgroepe in die sakedinamika van die Karoodorpe is gekwantifiseer met behulp van 'n afgeleide maatstaf, die afhanklikheidswaarde. Dit dui op die getal persone wat met die "gemiddelde sakeonderneming" vereenselwig kan word. Afhanklikheidswaardes van die totale dorpsbevolkings het oor 'n eeu betreklik konstant gebly, maar dié van landelike rasgroepe het gedaal - vir wit mense meer as vir bruin of swart mense. Afhanklikheidswaardes van bruin en swart dorpsbewoners in hierdie Karoodorpe het gestyg, maar dié van wit mense het gedaal. Verskille in ekonomiese prestasie tussen groot en kleiner dorpe kan nie bloot aan die afname in wit bevolkingsyfers toegeskryf word nie. Na 1951 het die afhanklikheidswaardes van kleiner en groter dorpe baie verskil en die vroeë geskiedenis van dorpe speel hierin 'n rol. Dit is moontlik dat dorpe na 'n ouderdom van 150 jaar 'n nuwe groeidinamiek binnegaan.


Proportionality phenomena have previously been recorded in the enterprise structures of South African towns and statistically significant (P < 0,05) correlations between the total number of enterprises in these towns and the number of enterprises in a range of different business sectors (e.g. the trading, financial, legal and vehicle services sectors) were reported (Toerien and Seaman 2010, 2012a, 2012b). In addition statistically significant (P < 0,05) correlations have also previously been recorded between the gross domestic product (GDP) or gross value added (GVA) of some South African towns (Toerien and Seaman 2012c) and their total populations, as well as between total population numbers of towns and their total number of enterprises. These results prompted a suggestion that a dynamic system operates in South African towns. The amount of money that enters into and/or circulates in a local economy attracts or repels people and there is a dynamic balance between money and population. The number of people in a town determines the total number of enterprises in the town and the needs or wants of the town's population determine the relative number of enterprises in most, but not all, business sectors (Toerien and Seaman 2012a).
This study addresses primarily the question whether the proportionality between population numbers and enterprise numbers in towns extends to previous decades. Access to a century-long database that includes (i) census population numbers for total population as well as for different racial groups, of rural as well as town origin, and (ii) enterprise numbers in the towns of twelve Eastern Cape Karoo towns enabled the study. Ten data sets were extracted in which the years of the population estimates and enterprise counts differed for a specific data set by at most two years. These data sets allowed examination of various aspects of the relationship between population numbers and enterprise numbers. Most analyses involved determination of correlations and regression equations, but additional techniques such as clustering of towns on the basis of their enterprise or population characteristics were also used to address specific questions.

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/content/litnet/11/1/EJC151157
2014-03-01
2016-12-08
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