1887

n South African Medical Journal - Predicting outcome in severe traumatic brain injury using a simple prognostic model : research

USD

 

Abstract

Several studies have made it possible to predict outcome in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) making it beneficial as an aid for clinical decision-making in the emergency setting. However, reliable predictive models are lacking for resource-limited prehospital settings such as those in developing countries like South Africa.


To develop a simple predictive model for severe TBI using clinical variables in a South African prehospital setting.
All consecutive patients admitted at two level-one centres in Cape Town, South Africa, for severe TBI were included. A binary logistic regression model was used, which included three predictor variables: oxygen saturation (SpO), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and pupil reactivity. The Glasgow Outcome Scale was used to assess outcome on hospital discharge.
A total of 74.4% of the outcomes were correctly predicted by the logistic regression model. The model demonstrated SpO (=0.019), GCS (=0.001) and pupil reactivity (=0.002) as independently significant predictors of outcome in severe TBI. Odds ratios of a good outcome were 3.148 (SpO ≥90%), 5.108 (GCS 6 - 8) and 4.405 (pupils bilaterally reactive).
This model is potentially useful for effective predictions of outcome in severe TBI.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/m_samj/104/7/EJC155079
2014-07-01
2016-12-05
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error