oa Mosenodi - Probability: looking for pattern where there is none



The paper looks at the extent to which the interplay between the notions of expected outcomes and chance is resolved amongst students enrolled for the Post Graduate Diploma in Education at the University of Botswana. In the study students were asked to choose between real and made-up results of 50 tosses of a coin and to give reasons/or their choices. An analysis of the reasons for the choice showed a strong tendency to expect a pattern, thus showing poor grasp of the impact of the element of chance on the expected outcomes.


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