n Conflict Trends - Preventing future wars : state of the art conflict early warning systems

Volume 1999, Issue 1
  • ISSN : 1561-9818


Where will the next war erupt? Can we do anything to prevent it? We know that wars don?t happen overnight. No matter how poor or oppressed a society is, or how provocative and manipulative political leaders may be, communal violence does not erupt suddenly. Inevitably, it is the manifestation of accumulated aggression and hostility. But why does aggression accumulate, and how does benign ethnic rivalry or competition between two communities turn into hostile mistrust, and violence? What, if anything, can be done, by whom, at what stage - to prevent the outbreak of violence and to resolve the conflict peacefully?

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