n Conflict Trends - Climate conflicts in the Horn of Africa?

Volume 2011, Issue 2
  • ISSN : 1561-9818


As climate change has moved up the political agenda over the last two decades, there has been a concomitant increase in the number of scientific exercises dealing with environmental and climate security. On the broader issue of environmental security, there has been a growing understanding of the ways in which environmental scarcity may trigger violent conflict. Before this debate regarding the role of environmental degradation and scarcity issues in the causation of conflicts was fully settled, however, the more specific aspect of climate change came to the fore. The phenomenon of climate change has socio-economic, political and demographic (through migration) impacts, which many fear will lead to increased societal tensions and violent conflict.

This article focuses on the climate change-conflict nexus in the Horn of Africa (HoA) - a region that has experienced high conflict levels, and is also prone to climatic fluctuations and natural disasters. Are the two phenomena causally linked? Will the impact of climate change worsen the prospects for stability in the HoA?

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