n Africa Conflict Monthly Monitor - Libya on the brink - : North Africa - issue in focus

Volume 2013, Issue 12
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Since the government of Muammar Gaddafi fell in 2011, events have transpired across Libya that suggests another civil war is increasingly probable. The central government's incapacity to perform the necessary functions of running a state undermines the prospects of the Libyan nation surviving as a cohesive entity during the extended post-Gaddafi era. Indeed, if the militias that control most of Libya fail to reach a lasting resolution with Tripoli and their rival militant factions, there is grave potential for Libya to become the 'new Somalia' of Africa. Libya may evolve from a sovereign nation-state into a 1.76 million km2 plot of territory situated below the Mediterranean Sea that is divided into many statelets, each of which is controlled by warlords, including certain radical Islamists.

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