n Africa Conflict Monthly Monitor - Shifting power in Abuja affects, and is affected, by Nigeria's security outlook - : West Africa - issue in focus

Volume 2014, Issue 03
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Nigeria is set to hold presidential elections in 2015. These elections are likely to be heavily contested, as evidenced by the recent, temporary arrest of the key opposition leader Nasir el-Rufai over comments he made about the likelihood of violence during the election. These elections also appear to be an increasing source of pressure on the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, who faces collapsing support amongst his own political party and backers, over the, as yet unanswered, question of whether he will compete in the 2015 elections, exemplified by recent mass defections from his own political party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The PDP has been dominant in the country's elections since 1999, but now appears substantially weakened by infighting and factionalisation. Jonathan is also struggling to maintain the delicate balance of ethnic, religious and political alliances and appointments which had previously secured his presidency.

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