n South African Actuarial Journal - The potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa

Volume 7, Issue 1
  • ISSN : 1680-2179


This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.

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