n South African Actuarial Journal - Abstracts of recent postgraduate theses and dissertations at South African universities

Volume 8, Issue 1
  • ISSN : 1680-2179


The project's objective is to derive a robust base population for use in the ASSA model to replicate the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) data. The problem at hand is to identify a robust means to derive a base population given the inadequacies of the available potential data sources. The major sources of data are the 2001 census and the ACDIS. The former data source is however shown not to be reliable for setting the base population of the study area, while the latter source does not go sufficiently far back in time to cover the chosen base year. The study uses a deterministic model that incorporates cohort-component methods. This model is arguably more robust than available alternative models. The study demonstrates that the ACDIS population can be reasonably replicated on certain key variables. On other variables, however, the model does not perform well. The major limitation of the study was availability and quality of data. In general, despite a number of limitations, the model produces results that show reasonable consistency with the observed population.

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