oa Agriprobe - The impact of importing apples on the South African Apple Industry : an Econometric Analysis

Volume 5, Issue 1
  • ISSN : 1810-9799



The demand for fresh apples in South Africa has increased over the past few years as reflected by increases in both volumes and real prices. The future outlook of this market also seems promising, considering the positive prospects of economic growth and the rising middle class. Local suppliers responded to this growing market as a larger proportion of total apple production is allocated to the domestic market. However, the potential of the domestic market is also noticed by other countries, e.g. China. The phyto-sanitary protocol for exporting apples from China to South Africa has been finalised February 2007. This paper is an analysis of the possible impact of an increase in local supply, resulting from large volumes of fresh apples imported, on the South African apple industry. An econometric demand and supply model in a partial equilibrium framework is used to simulate an outlook for the South African apple industry, and to evaluate the possible impact of importing large volumes of apples to South Africa.

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