1887

n Tydskrif vir Geesteswetenskappe - Suid-Afrika se fiskale afgrond : 'n Blik op dieaanwending van owerheidshulpbronne

Volume 54, Issue 1
  • ISSN : 0041-4751

Abstract


In the title of this paper the meaning of the words "fiscal cliff" differs from the meaning attached to these words when used with regard to the fiscal situation in the United States of America (USA). In this paper these words imply the danger that the South African government might run out of income to cover growing government expenditure, while they are used in the USA to depict a ceiling on the borrowing capacity of the federal government .This paper compares the South African government's expenditure on social grants and civil service remuneration since 2008 with government revenue over the same period. Social grants have grown at a substantial rate since 2008, amounting to some R105 billion in the 2012/13 fiscal year. Social grants as percentage of total government revenue increased from 12,6 per cent in the 2007/08 fiscal year to 14,2 per cent in the 2011/12 fiscal year. This analysis does not take into consideration the envisaged phasing-out of the means test for qualification for the old-age grant. Between 2008 and 2012 total employment in the civil service (central government and provincial governments) increased by 13,0 per cent. At the same time the total civil service remuneration bill increased by 76,1 per cent. Civil service remuneration as percentage of total government revenue increased from 31,7 per cent in the 2007/08 fiscal year to 42,2 per cent in the 2011/12 fiscal year. In 2008 social grants and civil service remuneration accounted for 44,3 per cent of total government revenue. This increased to 56,4 per cent at the end of the 2011/12 fiscal year. This analysis also shows that these two expenditure items will account for all government income by 2026, should current growth trends in these expenditure items continue, and assuming average nominal government revenue growth of 9,9 per cent (2012-2017), 9,7 per cent (2018-2030) and 8,6 per cent (2031-2050) per annum.

Die artikel ontleed sekere aspekte van die Suid-Afrikaanse owerheid se inkome en besteding sedert 2008. Die frase "fiskale afgrond" is 'n vrye vertaling van "fiscal cliff" wat in die Verenigde State van Amerika (VSA) gebruik word. Die betekenis in hierdie artikel verskil egter van die Amerikaanse betekenis. In die geval van die VSA dui dit op 'n plafon op staatskuld en leningskapasiteit van die regering, terwyl die betekenis in hierdie geval verband hou met die vermoë van owerheidsinkome om stygende owerheidsuitgawes te dek. Die ontleding van belastinginkome toon dat 'n betreklik klein aantal individue persoonlike belasting betaal. Ander vorms van verbruikersbelasting, byvoorbeeld belasting op toegevoegde waarde (BTW) word egter deur bykans alle verbruikers betaal. Die artikel toon aan dat owerheidsbesteding aan sosiale bystand toenemend groei as persentasie van totale owerheidsinkome. Terselfdertyd het die owerheid se vergoedingsrekening skerp toegeneem. Owerheidsinkome word ontleed om vas te stel in watter mate dit eenmalig struktureel verhoog kan word, en wat die verwagte groeitendens oor die volgende aantal jare sal wees. Die gevolgtrekking is dat sosialebystandbetalings en owerheidsvergoeding op 'n peil is waar verdere reële toenames onvolhoubaar en onbekostigbaar is, selfs al word belastings verhoog. Die bevinding is dat Suid-Afrika oor die lang termyn 'n fiskale afgrond in die gesig staar as die huidige neigings voortduur. Daar is nog tyd om hierdie afgrond te vermy, maar dan moet die regering die moed aan die dag lê om drastiese stappe in belang van die land, eerder as in belang van die regerende party te doen.

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/content/akgees/54/1/EJC151881
2014-01-01
2019-08-17

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