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n Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Natuurwetenskap en Tegnologie - Die verskaffing van elektrisiteit deur Eskom : die impak van beurtkrag en hoër pryse op die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie : oorspronklike navorsing

Volume 33, Issue 1
  • ISSN : 0254-3486
  • E-ISSN: 2222-4173
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Abstract

Hierdie studie ondersoek alternatiewe wyses waarop elektrisiteit in Suid-Afrika deur die energieverskaffer, Eskom, bestuur kan word. In besonder is die keuse tussen tariefverhogings en beurtkrag ondersoek. Beide keuses sal die land benadeel, en dit is dus noodsaaklik dat 'n optimale bestuurskeuse gemaak word. Die empiriese ondersoek maak van ekonomies algemene ewewigsmodellering gebruik. Voorspellings word ondersoek om te bepaal wat die invloed sal wees van verhogings in die prys van elektrisiteit sowel as 'n daling in die verskaffing daarvan op die ekonomie as geheel, op die onderskeie nywerheidsektore en die effek op huishoudings se verbruik. Elektrisiteitsverskaffing in Suid-Afrika behoort na raming met ten minste 10% per jaar te verhoog om aan die vraag te voldoen, maar die verhoging in prys wat die energiereguleerder toelaat, sal slegs tot 'n verhoging van 3.3% in die verskaffing van elektrisiteit lei. Indien 'n daling van 10% in die verskaffing van elektrisiteit, byvoorbeeld deur beurtkrag, bewerkstellig moet word, gaan die negatiewe gevolge selfs meer vernietigend op die land se ekonomie wees, veral in sektore soos vervaardiging en mynbou, wat elektrisiteit meer intensief gebruik. 'n Vergelyking van die twee voorspellings dui daarop dat die negatiewe impak van hoër elektrisiteitspryse kleiner sal wees as dié van kragonderbrekings op die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie.


This study investigates alternative ways to manage the electricity supply by the South African energy provider, Eskom, with specific focus on the choice between higher tariffs and load shedding. Both choices will harm the country's economy, and optimal managerial choices are, therefore, essential. The empirical research applies Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE). Scenarios on both price increases in electricity and supply reductions in supply were planned to determine what their effect would be on the country's economy as a whole, on specific industrial sectors and the effect on households. Estimates suggest that the supply of electricity in the country should increase by at least 10% to sustain the grid and thus avoid power cuts. The price increase approved by the national regulator, however, will be too little to increase supply and neither will it compel consumers to use less. This price increase will reduce electrical consumption by only 3.3%. On the other hand, if a 10% decrease in the output of electricity is permitted through load shedding, for example, the negative effects could be even more severe. This would be especially true of sectors that are electricity intensive, such as mining and manufacturing. When comparing these two scenarios, increases in the consumer price of electricity would be more preferable than electricity reduction through power cuts.

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/content/aknat/33/1/EJC157789
2014-01-01
2019-10-23

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