n Studies in Economics and Econometrics - The macro-economic impact of HIV / Aids in South Africa

Volume 27, Issue 2
  • ISSN : 0379-6205


The macro-economic impact of HIV / AIDS in South Africa over the next 10 to 15 years is investigated by means of a macro-econometric model of the South African economy. The analysis is based on a set of HIV / AIDS inclusive and exclusive demographic projections for South Africa for the period up to 2015. The paper provides a detailed description of the various macro-economic channels of impact, the assumptions required to generate the model simulations, the macro-economic results and a sensitivity analysis of the main assumptions. The results suggest that although HIV / AIDS is expected to have a marked impact on macro-economic conditions in South Africa, the impact is not likely to be devastating to longer-term growth and development.

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