n Studies in Economics and Econometrics - Aantekeninge oor vigsmortaliteit : die groot onsekerheid

Volume 28, Issue 2
  • ISSN : 0379-6205


After identifying the many uncertainties regarding actual levels of AIDS mortality, it is suggested that writers who try their hands at estimating and projecting such levels should evince a large measure of humility, and take heed of the warning of a simulation modeler, Nicolas Brouard: "... projection of the AIDS epidemic must have a much lower reliability than that for a similar demographic process even if the infectivity level were as reliable as the fertility level" (1989:84).

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