1887

oa Discourse - Budget deficit, long-term interest rates and crowding-out effect in South Africa

Volume 37, Issue 2
  • ISSN :

 

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent and the degree of the crowding-out effect in South Africa in the context of the current global financial crisis, to mitigate which a number of countries have resorted to increasing government expenditure, resulting in high budget deficit. The extent of the crowding out of private investment in South Africa is assessed in the context of the loanable-funds theory of interest rate. The cointegrating vector autoregressive technique is used to identify restrictions, followed by the full Fisher effect. Different assumptions for price expectations are made in the paper, the main finding of which - that budget deficit increases long-term interest rates - supports the existence of the crowding-out effect in South Africa. Another important finding is that the model used is informative of the nature of the term 'structure of interest rate' in South Africa.

Hierdie artikel handel oor die omvang en grootte van die verdringingseffek in Suid-Afrika binne die konteks van die huidige wêreldwye finansiële krisis, en hoe 'n aantal lande staatsbesteding verhoog het om die effek daarvan te versag, hoewel dit uiteindelik op 'n groot begrotingstekort uitgeloop het. Die omvang van die verdringing van private belegging in Suid-Afrika word geëvalueer binne die konteks van die leenfondsteorie van die rentekoers. Die koïntegrasievektor-outoregressietegniek word gebruik om beperkings te identifiseer, gevolg deur die volledige Fisher-effek. Daar word verskillende aannames vir prysverwagtings in die artikel gedoen, waarvan die hoofbevinding - dat 'n begrotingstekort langtermynrentekoerse laat styg - die bestaan van die verdringingseffek in Suid-Afrika staaf. Nog 'n belangrike bevinding is dat die model wat gebruik is, insiggewend is oor die aard van die begrip "rentekoersstruktuur" in Suid-Afrika.

Sengwalwa se se nyakišiša bokgole le kgato ya ditlamorago tše di šitišago katlego ya sephetho sa Afrika Borwa ka seemo sa ditaba sa khuduego ya moragorago ya lefasekakaretšo ya ditšhelete moo dinaga tše ntši di t_habelago go koketšego ya ditshenyegelo tša mmušo, seo se dirago gore go be le tlhaelo ye kgolo ya peakanyo ya ditšhelete, go fokotša ditlamorago tša khuduego ya ditšhelete. Bokgole bja tšhitišo ya peeletšo ya praebete ka Afrika Borwa bo lekolwa ka seemo sa teori ya ditšhelete tšeo di adimišegago ya seelo sa tswala. Thekniki ya bogolo bjo bo tsenelanago e dirišwa moo dithibelo tša go hlatha di latelago ditlamorago tša go tlala tša Fisher. Dikakanyo tša go fapana tša ditetelo tša theko di dirwa ka go pampiri ye. Seo se fihleletšwego ka gare ga pampiri sa gore hlaelo ya tekanyetšo ya dit_helete e oketša tswala ya lebaka le le telele se thekga go ba gona ga ditlamorago tša tšhitišo ka Afrika Borwa. Se sengwe gape se bohlokwa se se fihleletšwego ka go pampiri ye ke gore motlolo wo o dirišitšwego ke wa go sedimoša sebopego sa paka ya seelo sa tswala ka Afrika Borwa.

Leli phepha liphenya ububanzi nobunzulu bomphumela wokunyinyana eNingizimi Afrika enqikithini yekrayisisi yezimali yomhlaba wonke lapho khona amazwe amaningi eselandele indlela yokukhuphula incithomali kahulumeni, ekuholela ekutheni kukhuphuke imali eshodayo kwibhajethi, ukunciphisa umphumela wekrayisisi yezimali. Ububanzi bokunyinyana bokutshalwa kwezimali kwangasese eNingizimi Afrika ihlolwa ngenqikithi yenzalo mali yezikhwama ezingabolekwa. Isu le lisetshenziswa ekuboneni imithetho yokuthibela elandelwa ngokugcwele yimphumela yeFisher. Imigabadeli eyahlukene iyenziwa kuleli phepha ngokungalindelwa emananini. Ekuyisona sinqumo esitholwa yileli phepha ukuthi ukoshoda kwemali kwibhajethi kuyayikhuphula inzalo yesikhathi eside isekele nokubakhona kwenyinyano eNingizimi Afrika. Esinye isinqumo esimqoka saleli phepha ukuthi isilanganiso esisetshenzisiwe sinokucebisa ngobunjalo besakhiwo senzalo mali eNingizimi Afrika.

Loading full text...

Full text loading...

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/discourse/37/2/EJC31196
2009-12-01
2016-12-10

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error