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n Institute for Security Studies Papers - Population futures : revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030
Understanding the underlying dynamics of population change is critical for national planning. This analysis explores South Africa's fertility, mortality and migration outlooks, with a particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding migration. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and data from the South African 2011 National Census data, we simulated three potential population futures for South Africa to 2030 and compare these to the figures in the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030. According to our mid-range forecasts, by 2030 South Africa's population is projected to increase to:
- 64,4 million with rapidly declining in-migration
- 66,4 million with relatively stable in-migration
- 68,8 million with rapidly increasing in-migration
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