n SABI Magazine - Tydskrif - Seasonal Climate Watch December 2019 to April 2020 - climate

Volume 12 Number 2
  • ISSN : 2071-1883


The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain in a neutral state for the coming seasons. The sea-surface temperatures have risen sharply though in the last month and chances for a weak El Niño state during the summer period has increased drastically. Usually when this is the case, seasonal forecasts for the summer rainfall areas of South Africa tend to be more uncertain as compared to seasons with a clear ENSO signal. Historically, neutral ENSO conditions have been associated with above-normal, near-normal and below-normal rainfall outcomes.

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