1887

n South African Journal of Business Management - The effects of trade sanctions and disinvestment by foreign countries and its impact on the South African economy

Volume 18 Number 3
  • ISSN : 2078-5585

Abstract

In the event of total trade sanctions South Africa should have no difficulty in countering the ban on mineral exports, especially precious metals. Furthermore, earnings from precious metals are likely to increase in the short term followed by a gradual deterioration of these industries as cheaper substitutes are developed and producers from other countries make inroads into markets vacated by South African producers. In the manufacturing sector South Africa may benefit in the short term through import replacement and a drive towards self-sufficiency. However, in the long term factors such as scarcity of capital, technological obsolescence, disadvantages inherent in the lack of international co-operation and competition, and misallocation of resources would indicate that the cost of evading sanctions is too high. A disinvestment of portfolio investments is likely to cause a major decline in the prices of South African mining shares. A large scale disinvestment by multinational companies and foreign disinvestment of shares are likely to cause restructuring and increased economic concentration in the South African economy.

In die geval van algehele handelsanksies, behoort Suid-Afrika geen probleme te ondervind om die verbod op minerale uitvoer teen te werk nie, veral betreffende die edelmetale. Bowendien sal die inkomste uit edelmetale waarskynlik toeneem in die korttermyn, gevolg deur 'n geleidelike agteruitgang van hierdie industriee, aangesien goedkoper plaasvervangers ontwikkel word en vervaardigers van ander lande inbreuk maak op markte wat ontruim is deur Suid-Afrikaanse vervaardigers. In die vervaardigingssektor behoort Suid-Afrika in die korttermyn te baat by die voordele van invoervervanging en 'n strewe na selftoereikendheid. Op die langtermyn egter sal faktore soos 'n gebrek aan kapitaal, tegnologiese veroudering. nadele inherent aan die gebrek aan internasionale samewerking en wedywering, en die wantoekenning van bronne, aandui dat die koste van die ontduiking van sanksies te hoog is. 'n Disinvestering van portefeulje-beleggings sal waarskynlik 'n algehele agteruitgang in die pryse van Suid-Afrikaanse mynaandele tot gevolg he. 'n Grootskaalse disinvestering deur multinasionale maatskappye en buitelandse disinvestering van aandele sal waarskynlik lei tot herstrukturering en 'n toename in ekonomiese toespitsing in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie.

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/content/journal/10520/EJC-67c06c2ce
1987-09-01
2020-11-30

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