n Institute for Security Studies Papers - Finding a foothold - assessing forecastability in transnational organised crime

Volume 2017 Number rp2
  • ISSN : 1026-0404


States and intergovernmental bodies increasingly recognise the threats transnational organised crime (TOC) poses to human wellbeing, state legitimacy and the global economy, but we do not have a clear understanding of its scale or scope. This paper outlines a conceptual background for understanding and quantifying the future in broad terms and in the context of TOC. It provides an overview of data estimation and modelling, and offers a framework for beginning to think about forecasting types of TOC. The paper offers an assessment of ‘forecastability’ in five TOC categories, reviewing research and data estimation in each category.

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