n Farmer’s Weekly - Pessimistic global agricultural outlook - global farming

Volume 2018 Number 18029
  • ISSN : 0041-848X



World food prices peaked in 2007/2008, and decreased sharply in 2008 due to the global recession. Post-recession recovery resulted in a second peak after 2008. Since then, global food prices have decreased slowly but steadily. In 2017, food production reached record levels for most food product categories. At the same time, growth in demand slowed down. Previously, the increase in per capita income in China was a major driver of global demand growth. But as that country’s economy slowed down, this demand decreased. Demand growth in other areas was not robust enough to counter the decrease in China. Current high global stock levels, combined with weak demand and vigorous production growth, make a quick recovery of global prices unlikely in the next decade. Food demand growth depends on growth in per capita income, population growth, and changes in dietary patterns. As consumers demand more animal products, the demand for feed grain increases sharply, as seen in the 2007/2008 price boom. Industrial demand for agricultural products as inputs in the biofuel and chemical industries depends on economic growth and regulatory policies.

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