n Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences - Modeling Nigeria petroleum reservoir with/without initial reserves

Volume 4, Issue 3
  • ISSN : 2141-7016
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Nigerian petroleum in-situ reserve was modeled using production data and control transfer function while varying the input functions. An array of formulae were obtained and tested with Nigerian petroleum production data. Two broad group assumptions were made: zero initial reserve and constant initial reserve. Each group assumption is divided into two: one with pre-exponential constant and one without. The results obtained show that the two broad assumptions are reasonable as the values are very close to each other and the pre-exponential functions helped to move the model profiles better in the scatter diagrams as depicted by their respective R squares. From models with and without constant initial reserve, with pre-exponential constant, the best oil and gas models are 1 and 2 with R2 = 0.9966 and 0.9971 respectively. Counting from 1957, when the first petroleum was discovered at Olorbiri, Southern Nigeria, Nigeria's oil and gas production will peak between the years 2002-2031 and 2170-2242 with peak productions 768 mmB and 7,224 bscf respectively. Also, her oil and gas will exhaust between the years 2507-2700 and 3652-4080 with ultimate recoverable resources of 88,852 mmB and 2.867x106 bscf respectively. This study was carried out to provide basis for prediction of oil reserves; a reliable platform for pro active planning in the use and maximization of Nigeria oil reserve and/or goad the eminent need for development or search for other economy base rather than depend solely on a depleting non renewable economy base. In this work, simple mathematical models which are capable of predicting fossil fuel resources depletion in Nigeria, to a reasonable extent, have been developed.

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